Seasonal Freight Trends for Brokers: An Expert Guide

Top Insights

Jan–Mar Quiet Season: Post-holiday volume dip creates abundant capacity and lower rates—ideal for locking in carrier contracts and analyzing past performance.
Apr–Jul Produce Season: Reefers see demand spikes in southern farming regions, driving spot rates up ~30%—secure temperature‑controlled capacity early.
Aug–Oct Peak Season: Back‑to‑school and pre‑holiday promos surge consumer‑goods freight; expect tight capacity, higher rates, hurricane risks, and driver shortages during appreciation events.
Nov–Dec Holiday Rush: Black Friday through Christmas yields record volumes, ~10% tender rejections (reefer >20%), and port congestion—lock in carriers by late October and plan for delays.
Weather & Global Events: Winter storms, Lunar New Year slowdowns, and mid‑year hurricanes cause volatility—build contingencies into routing and carrier agreements.
Regional Commodity Trends: Seasonal harvests (potatoes in Summer–Fall, wood pellets in Fall–Winter) create local capacity crunches—monitor region‑specific rates and plan accordingly.

As seasons change, the trucking industry experiences shifts in freight volumes, rates, and demands for certain loads. For freight brokers, understanding these seasonal trends is key to staying competitive and maximizing opportunities throughout the year.

Let’s discuss seasonal freight trends and how they affect the freight market.

January–March (Quiet Season)

The year begins with a quieter freight market, offering brokers a chance to regroup after the holiday surge.

Slower freight volume

After the holiday rush, freight volumes drop as consumer spending slows and many manufacturers scale back. This dip is part of the regular freight cycle, with fewer shipments moving until spring demand returns.

Global events, like the Lunar New Year, slow down international supply chains, impacting import volumes.

Lower rates and higher availability

With fewer loads available, there’s more carrier capacity in the market. This gives brokers an edge when negotiating rates for shippers. However, winter weather in regions like the Northeast and Midwest can temporarily tighten capacity, causing brief rate spikes.

Weather risks and volatility

Risks like icy roads, frozen equipment, and unexpected delays increase as temperatures drop. Some truck drivers may take time off, or storms may disrupt routes. Consider these dynamics when choosing carriers and developing your shipping schedule.

Quiet season tips

Use the slower market to lock in favorable rates with carriers for the year ahead.
Analyze past shipments and adjust your rates to stay competitive and profitable.
Take advantage of available carrier capacity by onboarding new carriers for future shipments.

April–July (Produce Season)

Spring and summer mark the vibrant produce season, when agricultural harvests drive freight demand. Brokers face unique opportunities and challenges during this busy period.

Growing demand for reefers

The demand for refrigerated trailers (reefers) spikes as the harvest begins. It usually starts in the southern regions like Florida and Texas around February or March. Fresh produce has short shelf lives, so shippers need fast, temperature-controlled deliveries.

Higher rates and tighter availability

Spot market rates increase by ∼30%, especially in major farming regions where growers and distributors try to move crops before they spoil. As competition for truck space heats up, carriers can charge more.

Even dry van capacity is pulled from non-produce shippers to haul crops like onions or potatoes during this period, causing their rates to increase.

Produce session tips

Monitor the USDA’s Specialty Crops Truck Rate Reports to track demand and rate trends.
Secure agreement with reefer carriers before peak produce seasons.
Confirm that all parties have appropriate cargo insurance for transporting temperature-sensitive goods.

August–October (Peak Season)

The peak season is the freight market’s busiest period. Brokers can expect both major opportunities and serious challenges.

Demand surges

During this period, retailers rush to stock their shelves for back-to-school sales, Halloween, and early holiday promotions. This causes a sharp increase in the volume, especially for consumer goods and retail inventory.

Higher rates and lower carrier availability

With more freight moving, capacity tightens. Spot rates increase by late summer, and carriers gain leverage in negotiations. Air cargo rates may also spike nearly 25% in August as some retailers shift freight from ocean to air to meet deadlines.

Market volatility and external disruptions

Peak season overlaps with hurricane season, which can disrupt shipping lanes and cause sudden capacity shortages. Labor strikes (like the dockworker strike in late 2024), port delays, or shifts in global trade patterns make things more unpredictable.

Events

Big e-commerce sales, like Amazon Prime Day in July, can kick off pre-peak shipping spikes. These spikes create extra pressure on carrier capacity before the holiday rush begins.

Events like National Truck Driver Appreciation Week in September also reduce carrier availability. Truck drivers often take time off during this event to participate in the celebrations.

Regional and commodity-specific trends

It’s also important to monitor regions with increased demand for trucks due to seasonal products. Examples include:

Potato harvest (Summer-Fall): In regions like Idaho and Washington, there’s a high demand for reefer capacity during the potato harvest season.
Wood pellet shipping (Fall-Winter): In the Northeast and Southeast U.S., there’s a high demand for shipping wood pellets for heating homes.

Peak season tips

Monitor weather shifts and stay alert.
Plan for seasonal trends in specific regions.
Diversify your shipping options by adding air, rail, or intermodal.

November–December (Holiday Rush)

As the year closes, the freight market reaches its busiest and most competitive period.

Record‑high demand and volume

Retailers push large volumes of freight to meet Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas deadlines. This is typically the busiest freight period of the year, driven by both in-store and e-commerce sales.

Rising rates and lower carrier availability

Many drivers take time off for the holidays, reducing the number of available trucks. Tender rejection rates hover around ~10%, and reefer rejections can go over 20%, especially for temperature-sensitive holiday products like meats, seafood, and confectionery.

Port congestion

Major West Coast ports typically see heavy backlogs in Q4. The congestion leads to longer wait times and increased drayage costs.

Holiday season tips

Lock in carrier commitments before the rush, ideally by late October.
Prepare shippers for possible delays.
Consider downtime, warehouse closures, and port holidays when scheduling shipments.

FAQs

1. What are the risks brokers face during busy freight seasons?

During peak seasons, brokers face risks like carrier shortages, higher freight rates, and delivery delays. These challenges can lead to unhappy customers or lost business if not properly managed.

2. Can freight brokers work year-round despite seasonal changes?

Yes. While some freight markets experience seasonal fluctuations, freight moves all year long. Brokers who plan properly can maintain consistent business throughout the year.

Final Thoughts

Preparing for the fall and rise in freight demand is key for freight brokers in the trucking industry. As seasons shift, so do shipping patterns, customer needs, and available capacity.

Want to dive deeper and build a solid freight broker business that works year-round? Check out our 90-Day Freight Broker Course, designed to help new brokers succeed from day one.

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