Trucking Industry Trends, Statistics & Outlook for 2025

May 26, 2025

Trucking Industry Trends, Statistics & Outlook for 2025

To thrive in the freight brokerage industry, staying ahead of the curve is critical. As technology advances, regulations shift, and customer needs evolve, understanding these changes equips brokers to seize new opportunities.

This article highlights key trends, market changes, and growth opportunities for freight brokering in 2025 and beyond. These insights will help you prepare and build a competitive edge.

Economic Outlook

The economy plays a pivotal role in shaping the trucking industry’s trajectory. Understanding these financial trends will help you plan strategically for growth.

Trucking industry forecast

The U.S. trucking industry generated $940.8 billion in gross freight revenues in 2022, accounting for over 80% of the nation’s freight costs. The market is on track to grow steadily, with projections estimating it will reach $3.4 trillion by 2030 at a 5.5% annual growth rate.

This growth is supported by the sheer volume of freight that the industry and trucking companies handle. In 2022, around 13 million trucks moved more than 11.4 billion tons, covering nearly 73% of all domestic freight.

Truck freight volumes

The American Trucking Association (ATA) expects U.S. truck freight volumes to grow by 1.6% in 2025, rebounding from two years of decline. Several factors contribute to the expected growth:

A projected 2.1% growth in the U.S. economy, leading to industrial and manufacturing output increasing by 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.
A 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China. This led to reduced tariffs and a temporary easing of trade tensions.
Businesses restocking their inventories after long periods of lean stock levels because of previous supply chain disruptions.

Technological Advancements

Innovative technologies are revolutionizing how the trucking industry operates, so consider embracing these tools to improve efficiency and meet modern demands.

Artificial intelligence (AI) integration

More businesses in the trucking industry are adopting AI-driven solutions to improve their fleet operations and other processes.

Companies like Optimal Dynamics have developed AI-driven fleet management software. This software helps match loads and optimize routes. It can also improve fuel usage and boost weekly truck revenue by up to 24%.

Autonomous driving

Autonomous trucking is also gaining traction. Aurora has launched a commercial self-driving truck service in Texas, completing over 1,200 miles without a driver. Similarly, Kodiak’s autonomous semi-trucks have helped a customer complete 100 driverless deliveries.

The autonomous truck market is expected to grow by 13.4% between 2025 and 2032, driven by advancements in sensor technology, AI, and the need to address driver shortages.

Regulatory Changes

To operate smoothly and avoid disruptions, make sure to stay compliant with the following new regulations:

English proficiency enforcement

Starting June 25, 2025, the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) will enforce stricter English proficiency requirements for commercial truck drivers.

Under this mandate, drivers who cannot adequately read and speak English will immediately be out of service. This regulation aims to improve public and driver safety by ensuring drivers can understand road signs, communicate with officials, and complete necessary documentation.

Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates

Some U.S. states are pushing manufacturers to increase the percentage of zero-emission trucks sold annually.

For instance, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, which starts in 2025, requires trucking companies to replace internal combustion trucks with electric vehicles by 2035. These electric trucks will play a crucial role in reducing the environmental impact of trucking and combating climate change.

Labor and Workforce Trends

The workforce is the backbone of the trucking industry. Here are the challenges you should address in 2025:

Driver shortages and incentives

The U.S. trucking industry lacks over 80,000 drivers, which is expected to double by 2030. To address this, the Strengthening Supply Chains through Truck Driver Incentives Act has been reintroduced.

The act aims to attract more people into the profession and improve driver retention by providing these incentives:

A refundable tax credit of up to $7,500 for existing truck drivers who drive at least 1,900 hours per year.
A refundable tax credit of up to $10,000 for new truck drivers or people enrolled in a trucking apprenticeship.

In addition to government-led initiatives, fleet managers will also need to improve the working conditions of their drivers to increase retention.

Turnover rates and employment trends

Trucking companies have always struggled with high turnover rates. However, these rates dropped in 2024 because economic uncertainties led to more job stability. Currently, 3.5 million truck drivers are employed in the U.S., and this number is projected to grow by 4% by 2033.

Pricing Trends

Pricing fluctuations directly impact freight brokerage profitability. Monitoring these trends will help you make informed decisions.

Spot rates

Spot rates have been rising, with truckload spot rates increasing by 11.6% year-over-year at the end of Q4 2024. This increase is due to tightening capacity and higher freight demand in certain regions.

Contract rates

Contract rates, which typically lag behind spot rates, are also showing signs of improvement. Analysts anticipate a 4% year-over-year increase in contract rates by the end of 2025.

Regional variations

Regional factors, such as port activities and inventory restocking, influence pricing. For instance, the West Coast has experienced a decrease in freight volumes, leading to lower spot rates despite some tightness in available capacity during peak periods.

Fuel costs

Diesel fuel prices rose by 21 cents in the first three weeks of 2025, reaching a national average of $3.72 per gallon. By March, the average diesel price decreased to $3.59 per gallon. Forecasts suggest diesel prices will average around $3.41 per gallon in Q4 2025. This fuel cost will affect surcharges and overall freight fees.

FAQs

1. Is 2025 a good time to start a freight brokerage?

Yes. The global freight brokerage market is projected to grow from $51.7 billion in 2023 to $85.9 billion by 2032, signaling an increasing demand for brokerage services.

2. What technologies should brokers use to stay competitive?

To remain competitive in 2025, freight brokers should embrace the following technologies:

Artificial intelligence and machine learning
Automation platforms
Real-time tracking systems
Fraud detection tools
Integrated transportation management systems (TMS)

Final Thoughts

The freight brokerage industry keeps changing. Those who understand the trucking industry’s outlook and optimize for emerging opportunities will enjoy greater success.

But trends alone aren’t enough. Another thing you need to succeed is proper training, which requires the right guidance and tools.

To build a profitable and future-ready freight brokerage, especially in a market with fewer trucks and rising rates, check out our 90-Day Freight Broker Course. It’s designed to give you all the skills and knowledge to thrive in the transportation industry.

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